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Oregon High School 6A State XC Projections by Run-Down.comPublished by
Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC ProjectionsPresented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track 2012 Girls 6A Projections # League State manual 1 10 Sara Tsai 17:31.1 17:18.3 South Eugene 2 11 Paige Rice 17:46.8 18:25.6 17:19 St Mary's Academy 3 12 Erin Clark 17:32.1 17:19.3 South Eugene 4 9 Ella Donaghu 18:38.3 18:05.3 17:20 Grant -- 12 Maggie Schmaedick 17:34.1 17:21.3 Sheldon 5 12 Parkes Kendrick 18:39.0 18:06.0 Grant 6 11 Charlotte Corless 17:53.0 18:21.2 Sunset 7 10 Ellie Kallgren 17:55.4 18:23.6 Jesuit 8 12 Kelly O'Neill 18:56.6 18:23.6 Lakeridge -- 10 Gracie Todd 18:40.8 18:28.0 Sheldon -- 10 Erin Gregoire 18:00.7 18:28.9 Beaverton 9 10 Dylan Hite 18:04.7 18:32.9 Jesuit 10 11 Piper Donaghu 19:06.6 18:33.6 Grant 11 9 Brooke Chuhlantseff 18:22 18:38.0 West Salem 12 12 Ellen Patterson 18:03.1 18:41.9 St Mary's Academy 13 9 Nicole Griffiths 18:18.2 18:46.4 Sunset -- 9 Kennedy Allen 18:13.8 18:52.6 David Douglas -- 9 Whitney Rich 19:32.0 18:57.4 McMinnville 14 9 Lacey Conner 18:20.1 18:58.9 St Mary's Academy 15 12 Sarah Fahmy 18:33.0 19:01.2 Sunset -- 12 Amanda Stowe 18:35.3 19:03.5 Aloha 16 12 Megan Mullaney 18:37.1 19:05.3 Jesuit 17 11 Taylor Moscoe 18:38.3 19:06.5 Jesuit 18 10 Phacelia Cramer 19:21.1 19:08.3 South Eugene -- 11 Sarah Medved 18:40.5 19:08.7 Westview -- 11 Rachel Niesen 18:41.7 19:09.9 Southridge 19 12 Kennedy Martin 18:33.5 19:12.3 Gresham 20 9 Nicole McCollough 18:44.8 19:13.0 Jesuit -- 11 Gracie Tostenson 19:28.2 19:15.4 Crater 21 9 Rennie Kendrick NT 19:16.0 Grant 22 12 Erin Sanders 19:55.0 19:20.1 Newberg 23 12 Carmen Mejia 19:37.0 19:24.2 South Medford -- 9 Paige Nelson 19:44.3 19:31.5 Thurston 24 12 Lindsay Sheaffer 19:07.6 19:35.8 Jesuit 25 10 Lela Stemple 19:49.2 19:36.4 South Medford 26 9 Kate Patterson 19:02.0 19:40.8 St Mary's Academy 27 10 Tori Hensley 19:15.7 19:43.9 Sunset 28 9 Amanda Calderwood 19:17.9 19:46.1 Sunset -- 11 Lauren Lykins 20:21.0 19:46.4 Hillsboro 29 9 Katie Leavy 19:19.1 19:47.3 Jesuit 30 9 Sharon Zhang 19:19.2 19:47.4 Sunset 31 12 Haley McDonald 19:09.1 19:47.9 Gresham 32 11 Natalie Mosman 20:08.8 19:56.0 South Eugene 33 12 Genevieve Brandt 20:10.3 19:57.5 South Eugene -- 12 Shea Vallaire 20:32.6 19:59.6 Lake Oswego -- 10 Elizabeth Dean 20:36.0 20:01.4 Tigard 34 12 Maddy Kaczmarowski 20:35.3 20:02.3 Grant -- 10 Zoe Clegg 20:36.3 20:03.3 Clackamas 35 12 Karen Qu 19:35.4 20:03.6 Sunset 36 10 Lucy O'Sullivan 19:26.9 20:05.7 St Mary's Academy 37 10 Molly McCullough 19:27.3 20:06.1 St Mary's Academy 38 12 Elena Torry-Schrag 20:42.0 20:07.4 Forest Grove 39 10 Libby Kokes 20:41.7 20:08.7 Grant 40 9 Victoria Haynes 20:22.3 20:09.5 South Medford 41 12 Celeste Raymond 19:32.0 20:10.8 St Mary's Academy -- 12 Anna Peaslee 20:45.0 20:12.0 Lake Oswego 42 10 Rubi Vergara-Grindell 20:49.0 20:14.4 Forest Grove -- 12 Rachel Gibbs 20:51.0 20:16.4 Glencoe -- 12 Rachel Crawford 20:49.6 20:16.6 Oregon City 43 11 Debora DeLeon 20:53.0 20:18.4 Newberg 44 10 Tristan Husted 20:37.0 20:24.2 South Medford -- 12 Emily Trosino 19:46.4 20:25.2 Reynolds 45 11 Vivian Hawkinson 20:10 20:26.0 South Salem 46 11 Lia Newman 21:02.4 20:29.4 Lakeridge -- 12 Maggie Riley 19:50.7 20:29.5 Central Catholic -- 10 Julia Stevenson 19:50.9 20:29.7 Central Catholic 47 11 Laura Manning 21:03.9 20:30.9 Lakeridge -- 12 Courtney Repp 20:16 20:32.0 McNary 48 9 Amy Watson 20:52.1 20:39.3 South Medford 49 12 Laura Suzuki 21:14.0 20:41.0 Lakeridge 50 11 Savannah Stanton 21:17.0 20:42.4 Newberg 51 10 Grace Pinckney 20:56.4 20:43.6 South Eugene 52 11 Erica Keathley 20:06.4 20:45.2 Gresham 53 11 Stefanee Tolner 20:59.7 20:46.9 South Medford 54 10 Kimberly Heesacker 21:22.0 20:47.4 Forest Grove 55 10 Dorothy Wang 21:20.9 20:47.9 Lakeridge 56 11 Emilia Anderson 21:26.0 20:51.4 Forest Grove 57 11 Stefani Ritter 21:07.1 20:54.3 South Medford 58 11 Julia Khoury 21:31.0 20:56.4 Forest Grove 59 9 Elli Newman 21:30.1 20:57.1 Lakeridge -- 12 Laura Donaldson 20:43 20:59.0 McNary 60 10 Allie Rasmussen 20:44 21:00.0 West Salem -- 9 Jenna Gross 20:48 21:04.0 Sprague 61 12 Atalie Frank 20:53 21:09.0 South Salem 62 11 Rebeca DeLeon 21:45.0 21:10.4 Newberg 63 11 Courtney Hammagren 20:55 21:11.0 South Salem 64 11 Madeline Hearn 21:44.3 21:11.3 Lakeridge 65 10 Margaret Halstead 21:46.0 21:11.4 Newberg -- 11 Kaelia Neal 20:59 21:15.0 North Salem 66 11 Morgan Pfunder 21:29.1 21:16.3 South Eugene 67 11 Aleksa Wood 21:01 21:17.0 South Salem 68 11 Jacelyn Davis 20:40.0 21:18.8 Gresham 69 11 Alicia Phan 21:03 21:19.0 West Salem 70 10 Emma Bidwell 21:03 21:19.0 South Salem 71 11 Irena Pia 21:55.0 21:20.4 Newberg 72 12 Madeline Bochereau 21:13 21:29.0 West Salem 73 11 Alicia Nunziato 20:50.9 21:29.7 Gresham 74 12 McKaelie Wolfe 22:07.0 21:32.4 Newberg 75 11 Ana Ramirez 21:19 21:35.0 West Salem 76 11 Abbie Nilan 22:18.9 21:45.9 Grant 77 9 Maddy Eyerly 21:33 21:49.0 South Salem 78 12 Bethany Reding 21:54 22:10.0 South Salem 79 10 Grace Livengoood 22:04 22:20.0 West Salem 80 11 Minerva Bron 21:41.3 22:20.1 Gresham 81 10 Emily Cantrell-Cole 22:13 22:29.0 West Salem 82 10 Madison Taylor 21:55.1 22:33.9 Gresham 83 9 Esther Harris 23:12.0 22:37.4 Forest Grove 84 12 Jessica Steigerwald 23:37.0 23:02.4 Forest Grove 1) Jesuit 8 - 9 - 16 - 17 - 20 - (24) - (29) = 70 2) Grant 4 - 5 - 10 - 21 - 34 - (39) - (76) = 74 3) South Eugene 1 - 3 - 18 - 32 - 33 - (51) - (66) = 87 4) Sunset 6 - 13 - 15 - 27 - 28 - (30) - (35) = 89 5) St Mary's Academy 2 - 12 - 14 - 26 - 36 - (37) - (41) = 90 6) South Medford 23 - 25 - 40 - 44 - 48 - (53) - (57) = 180 7) Lakeridge 7 - 46 - 47 - 49 - 55 - (59) - (64) = 204 8) Newberg 22 - 43 - 50 - 62 - 65 - (71) - (74) = 242 9) Gresham 19 - 31 - 52 - 68 - 73 - (80) - (82) = 243 10) Forest Grove 38 - 42 - 54 - 56 - 58 - (83) - (84) = 248 11) West Salem 11 - 60 - 69 - 72 - 75 - (79) - (81) = 287 12) South Salem 45 - 61 - 63 - 67 - 70 - (77) - (78) = 306
Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC ProjectionsPresented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track 2012 Boys 6A Projections # League State 1 11 Kyle Thompson 15:24.2 15:39.6 Central Catholic -- 12 Dan Oekerman 15:14.7 15:40.1 Beaverton 2 12 Jackson Darland 16:05.8 16:01.5 Sheldon 3 12 Julian Heninger 16:19.2 16:01.9 Lakeridge 4 12 Jackson Haselnus 15:49.9 16:05.3 Barlow -- 11 Kenny Freeman 16:09.7 16:05.4 Roseburg 5 11 TJ Wright 16:10.1 16:05.8 Sheldon 6 12 Josh Sealand 15:42.5 16:07.9 Jesuit 7 12 Tanner Smith 15:42.8 16:08.2 Lincoln -- 12 Taylor Hybl 15:54.6 16:10.0 Centennial 8 11 Sam Remington 15:49.2 16:14.6 Jesuit -- 12 Liam Chapin-Jones 16:20.1 16:15.8 South Eugene 9 12 Brian McDavitt 15:50.8 16:16.2 Jesuit 10 10 Sam Lomax 16:01.1 16:16.5 Central Catholic -- 12 RJ Morgan 15:52.7 16:18.1 Westview -- 12 Daniel Stoiber 16:23.9 16:19.6 Crater -- 12 Todd Macdonald 16:37.4 16:20.1 Lake Oswego -- 12 Matthew Kingzett 15:55.1 16:20.5 Westview -- 10 Reilly Bloomer 16:25.0 16:20.7 South Eugene -- 11 Ian Stevens 16:06.0 16:21.4 Reynolds 11 12 Blake Spencer 16:25.7 16:21.4 North Medford 12 11 Ray Schireman 16:26.9 16:22.6 North Medford 13 12 Nico Banks 15:58.0 16:23.4 Lincoln 14 12 Hunter McGuirk 16:00.4 16:25.8 Jesuit 15 12 Jordan Landstrom 16:11.6 16:27.0 Central Catholic 16 9 Daniel Thompson 16:11.6 16:27.0 Central Catholic 17 12 Matt Piercy 16:01.7 16:27.1 Jesuit 18 11 Dante Dalla Gasperina 16:12.4 16:27.8 Central Catholic 19 10 Jean Baptiste Tooley 16:12.7 16:28.1 Central Catholic 20 12 Alex Joseph 16:05.5 16:30.9 Jesuit 21 12 Caleb Diaz 16:35.3 16:31.0 North Medford -- 11 Devin Sellers 16:07.2 16:32.6 Aloha -- 11 Nic McDaniel 16:57.0 16:33.1 McMinnville 22 12 Connor Cushman 16:50.6 16:33.3 West Linn 23 9 Roman Ollar 16:51.2 16:33.9 West Linn 24 9 Leo Lukens 16:52.4 16:35.1 Lakeridge 25 12 Colton Ansberry 16:52.9 16:35.6 Lakeridge 26 12 Tyler Griffin 16:53.4 16:36.1 West Linn 27 11 Michael Godbout 16:11.6 16:37.0 Jesuit 28 10 Matthew Lovos 17:01.0 16:37.1 Tualatin 29 11 Liam Burke 16:12.4 16:37.8 Lincoln -- 11 Al Lacey 16:55.7 16:38.4 Oregon City -- 11 Jared Bell 16:56.0 16:38.7 Clackamas -- 11 Jackson Cole 16:56.2 16:38.9 Grant 30 10 Sam Truax 16:24.2 16:39.6 Central Catholic 31 12 Devyn Baldovino 16:44.2 16:39.9 North Medford -- 11 Nathaniel Roberts 16:32 16:40.6 Sprague 32 12 Judd Parson 17:06.0 16:42.1 Forest Grove 33 12 Auston Burns 16:28.6 16:44.0 Barlow 34 12 Austin Kettleson 16:31.0 16:46.4 Barlow 35 12 Alex Johnston 16:50.9 16:46.6 Sheldon 36 10 Seth Berdahl 17:11.0 16:47.1 Forest Grove -- 12 Jacob Atkinson 16:41 16:49.6 Sprague 37 12 Kevin Mertz 17:07.0 16:49.7 Lakeridge 38 11 Henry Fowler 16:54.6 16:50.3 Sheldon -- 12 Keenan Follett 16:35.5 16:50.9 Reynolds 39 12 Joey Rincon 16:55.2 16:50.9 North Medford -- 11 Mason Rouches 17:15.0 16:51.1 Glencoe 40 9 Grayson Ollar 17:09.2 16:51.9 West Linn 41 9 Noah Belcik 17:13.1 16:55.8 Lakeridge 42 11 Aaran Fagan 17:00.3 16:56.0 North Medford -- 12 Bailey Peterson 17:21.0 16:57.1 Newberg 43 11 Tyler Snyder 17:23.0 16:59.1 Tualatin 44 12 Emanuel Kraynick 16:52 17:00.6 West Salem 45 10 Jake Beach DNF 17:00.6 West Salem -- 10 Ronnie Graham 17:25.0 17:01.1 McMinnville 46 12 Connor Pitt 17:27.0 17:03.1 Forest Grove 47 12 Ben Campbell 16:39.3 17:04.7 Lincoln 48 9 Jackson Mestler 17:10.8 17:06.5 Sheldon 49 9 Colin Squires 17:23.8 17:06.5 West Linn -- 12 Brandon Raleigh 16:51.6 17:07.0 Reynolds 50 10 Benjamin Love 17:32.0 17:08.1 Tualatin 51 11 Ben Harter 17:13.4 17:09.1 Sheldon 52 11 Michael Garcia 17:36.0 17:12.1 Forest Grove 53 11 Ethan Takla 16:48.0 17:13.4 Lincoln 54 10 Spencer Bybee 17:08 17:16.6 West Salem 55 12 Scott Allred 17:45.0 17:21.1 Tualatin 56 11 David Bellamy 17:27.8 17:23.5 Sheldon 57 10 Tommy Franklin 17:10.1 17:25.5 Barlow 58 12 Sean Barr 17:17 17:25.6 West Salem -- 11 Sam Ruck 17:19 17:27.6 South Salem 59 12 Brayan Cruz 17:53.0 17:29.1 Forest Grove 60 11 Duncan MacEachern 17:05.0 17:30.4 Lincoln 61 10 Connor Covey 17:35.0 17:30.7 North Medford 62 11 Teddy Kortenhof 17:08.5 17:33.9 Lincoln 63 12 Sam Bybee 17:27 17:35.6 West Salem 64 9 Malachi Seib 18:00.0 17:36.1 Tualatin 65 11 Riley Hankins 17:28 17:36.6 West Salem 66 9 Justin Miller 17:55.6 17:38.3 Lakeridge 67 9 Hunter Mosman 17:30 17:38.6 West Salem 68 10 Brandon Williams 17:25.1 17:40.5 Barlow 69 11 Michael Sullivan 17:58.5 17:41.2 West Linn 70 12 Tony Goemaere 17:34 17:42.6 McNary 71 11 Aaron Orr 18:09.0 17:45.1 Forest Grove 72 10 Daylon Martin 17:30.1 17:45.5 Barlow 73 11 Evan Rummerfield 17:38 17:46.6 McNary 74 12 Nathan Belcik 18:04.3 17:47.0 Lakeridge 75 10 Daniel Ennis 18:24.0 18:00.1 Tualatin -- 12 Esau Lopez 17:52 18:00.6 North Salem 76 11 John Goetze 18:21.7 18:04.4 West Linn 77 10 William Calder 18:29.0 18:05.1 Tualatin 78 12 Ian Dehner 18:37.0 18:13.1 Forest Grove 79 11 Manny Garcia 18:00.2 18:15.6 Barlow 80 11 Adrian Fernandez 18:11 18:19.6 McNary 81 11 Dalton Lindsey 18:21 18:29.6 McNary 82 11 Taylor Russell 18:56 19:04.6 McNary 83 9 Angel Goemaere 19:06 19:14.6 McNary 84 12 Amadi Amaitsa 19:50 19:58.6 McNary 1) Jesuit 6 - 8 - 9 - 14 - 17 - (20) - (27) = 54 2) Central Catholic 1 - 10 - 15 - 16 - 18 - (19) - (30) = 60 3) North Medford 11 - 12 - 21 - 31 - 39 - (42) - (61) = 114 4) Sheldon 2 - 5 - 35 - 38 - 49 - (51) - (56) = 129 5) Lakeridge 3 - 24 - 25 - 37 - 41 - (66) - (74) = 130 6) Lincoln 7 - 13 - 29 - 47 - 53 - (60) - (62) = 149 7) West Linn 22 - 23 - 26 - 40 - 48 - (69) - (76) = 159 8) Barlow 4 - 33 - 34 - 57 - 68 - (72) - (79) = 196 9) Forest Grove 32 - 36 - 46 - 52 - 59 - (71) - (78) = 225 10) Tualatin 28 - 43 - 50 - 55 - 64 - (75) - (77) = 240 11) West Salem 44 - 45 - 54 - 58 - 63 - (65) - (67) = 264 12) McNary 70 - 73 - 80 - 81 - 82 - (83) - (84) = 386 The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course. For the top runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts. I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower, so it goes... The idea being, there's no way to take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack. The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals. A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions. Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack. The key to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the various big meet courses (like Nike Pre-Nationals, Concordia, New Balance, etc.) were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective courses. This is often complicated by the over-crowding at many of the invites which results in teams running fast one meet and slow the next (when tripped up at the start, for example), making for less consistent comparisons. Read the full article at: run-down.com
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